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From the yen to the Aussie - it's a week to watch

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With the US Independence Day holiday on Friday, this will be a busy but short week. On Tuesday the Bank of Japan issues the Tankan - its economic survey of business. Saxo’s John Hardy says this is important because it gives a good indication of business confidence. It comes as the Japanese yen, last week, broke a key moving average in USDJPY. US data including Thursday’s non-farm payrolls will also feed into the range.

Keep an eye on the AUDUSD this week as the Reserve Bank of Australia holds its board meeting. Hardy says there’s a big mismatch between interest rate spreads. He also believes the Aussie could spill higher.

Moving to Europe and there’s an ECB meeting on Thursday. Hardy says it comes at an interesting time in Eurodollar which is pretty much unchanged since last month’s meeting. He says the focus will be on whether ECB president, Mario Draghi will ‘up the game’. Expect more rhetoric, Hardy advises, because the bank wants EURUSD lower. But whether that happens will be influenced by US data out this week including non-farms and the ISM report.