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Why the euro is 'at risk' of a short-covering bounce

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If you're trading the euro, you need to be aware of the positioning of hedge funds and other large money managers who have been continuing to sell EUR currency futures. The net-short has reached the highest level since August 2012. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen says that could be a worry if we see a general change in sentiment. On Friday, EURUSD rose after disappointing jobs news from the States. If the euro continues to drift higher, we could see additional short covering pushing it higher. 
Ole says there are plenty of "risk events" this week which could effect the market, not least in sentiment. At the moment, Ole says the focus is on the stock market but also on Thursday, the European Central Bank has its regular monthly policy meeting.
Elsewhere, hedge funds have also reduced their net long exposure to commodities for a fifth week in a row. Ole explains what's going on and why it's happening now.