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Faraday: Bullish USD trampling CAD
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Friday's US non-farm payrolls, 321,000 jobs added in November, were the highest since the start of the recovery in 2009.
The Fed has always made it abundantly clear that any rise in interest rates would be data dependent, so Friday's stellar numbers certainly ramp up the probability of an early rate rise.
Thomas Light from Faraday Research argues that the prospects of an early rate rise should continue to fuel the dollar bull market. Therefore, he’s looking to pair the strong US dollar against the Canadian dollar; which is being hit by falling oil prices and weak domestic employment data.
The weekly candle chart shows that USD/CAD prices have established a long term uptrend with the recent leg higher, which started in July, carving out a solid ascending channel. The channel sets out some clear volatility parameters but Thomas is not looking to trade the channel itself, instead he uses it to plan his trade setup.
"The daily candle chart illustrates that the market attempted to breakout above its November swing highs on the back of Friday's data and although the breakout failed to materialise, prices are still contained within a bullish ascending wedge pattern."
Thomas Light outlines his trading strategy with a plan for this week to buy up any retracements back to the bottom of the wedge, in order to play for a breakout. He suggests any stops should go below the bottom of the wedge around 1.1380 with initial targets at 1.1590’s.