SaxoTV

Jakobsen: UK election will leave little decided

978 views
April 29, 2015 amc, bondsg, bondsgbg, brent, business, conservative, election, election promises, election results, elections, elections economy, fx, fx award, fx crosses, fx forex, fx interbank markets, fx investing, fx market, fx markets, fx options, fx spot, fx strategy, fx trade, fx trade idea, fx traders, fx trades, fx trading, fx volatility, fxmarkets, gb, gbp, gbp eur, gbp falling, gbp trading, gbp trading 2014, gbp trading 2014g, gbp tradingg, gbp usd, gbp weakening, gbp weakening', gbpeur, gbpeur 2014, gbpjpy, gbpusd, gbpusd 2014, gbpusd 2015, gbpusd labour day, gbpusd record high, gbpusd trade idea, labor, labour, labour market, liberal democrats, london, london stock exchange, long, long gold, long position, long positions, long term investment, macro, macro economics, macro economy, macro econonomics, macro event, macro events, macro policy, macro strategy, macro-economics, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, saxo bank, saxo bank saxo tv, saxo tv, saxotv, ster, sterilisation, sterilization, sterling, sterling appreciation, sterling dollar, sterling euro, sterling exchange rate, sterling forex, sterling investment, sterling losses, sterling puts, sterling rate, sterling rise, sterling risk, sterling strength, sterling strong, sterling trading, sterling trading 2014, sterling trading 2015, sterling weakness, sterling yen, sterlingyen, sterlng, tradingfloor.com, tser, uk, uk banks, uk economic data, uk economists, uk economy, uk election, uk elections, uk gdp, uk growth, uk inflation, uk interest rates, uk jobs, uk jobs data, uk manufacturing, uk pound, uk rates, uk recovery, uk unemployment, uk wages, ukgdp, ukraine, united kingdom
It's the final full week of campaigning in the UK and the opinion polls have the two largest parties; Labour and the Conservatives, neck and neck. Another hung parliament is the most likely outcome of what has been the most unpredictable election campaign for decades. 

Saxo Bank's Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen gives us his thoughts and views on the possible outcomes and how the vote affects the investment outlook. It's the days after the actual election on May the 7th which count, when the parties, will most likely, gather for marathon coalition building talks and that's when Steen expects there to be more of a market impact with Sterling volatility spiking and a negative stock market reaction.

A conservative led coalition would set the UK on a path to a promised referendum on EU membership. A vote could be held in 2016. The prospect of a 'Brexit' could be considered more worrying for the markets than a Labour led coalition. If Labour does do a deal with the Scottish National Party in order to form a government then we could also be heading for another referendum in Scotland. 

So some stark choices for the UK, a messy election which will leave much undecided and the possibility of either of two referendums or even another general election this year which will only upset the markets further.