Trading Floor

More proof of China's economy cooling; Monetary easing ahead soon

2,233 views
In this Asian Focus video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, analyses the latest macro data out of China which is clearly pointing to a cooling economy. He also comments on positive Australian employment data which showed the economy added 10,100 jobs in October.

Prices at both consumer and producer levels in China fell markedly during October, with producer prices in particular at the lowest level this year, which was the most positive of the reports and gives an indication of what is to come in the coming months, says Andrew Robinson, of Saxo Capital Markets. It now seems evident that there is a general reduction in price pressure, from particularly food, which is very much welcomed. The expectation is that during the next few months inflation will come down quite considerably and this trend will continue into next year, in line with what is being estimated by think tanks and the like - which are currently revising down their inflation forecasts for the rest of the year and 2012.

In addition to slowing price growth, industrial production and retail sales in China also fell last month. Of particular note is industrial production which is now at the lowest growth rate in two years. This however is largely expected considering the general global slowdown. Trade data also further confirmed the slowing scenario due to the global imbalance.

Based on this backdrop and particularly the development in prices it is quite possible that Chinese authorities will look into monetary easing measures to at least stimulate the domestic economy to compensate for the lack of demand globally. A reduction in the reserve ratio requirement could come as soon as by the end of the month, according to media reports. This would be welcomed outside China too as it could potentially help the global economy get back on its feet, says Andrew.

Looking to Australia, the latest employment data for October was largely in line with expectations but of particular note was that most of the gains came from the creation of full-time jobs rather than part-time, which is positive news, says Andrew.

See more of Andrew's Asian market commentary on TradingFloor.com