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EURUSD dynamic shifts post EU summit but market discipline lurks
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He likens the situation to a state of suspended animation and says Europe is for now fortunate to have the European Central Bank in the background so readily providing liquidity. The net effect being that peripheral Eurozone bonds are ironically going lower even though European politicians have still really failed to deliver!
A smooth process for the implementation of the new treaty and agreement on the fiscal policing process probably needs to be well settled before the next EU summit in March, however these are long-term sustainability issues and continuing down the austerity route alone is still an unsustainable situation. In the short term the market just really wants to know if the liquidity game will be continued, says John.
Macro data from Europe is still important especially when recent numbers have pointed to more contraction in Eurozone economies. In terms of the near-term EURUSD outlook though, the focus seems to have shifted somewhat away from Europe. According to John, this currency pair seems to be driven by the ‘old classic’ quantitative easing or not/risk appetite or not dynamic for now. Key US data points coming up will be more decisive for Euro-Dollar than data out of the Eurozone or whatever the latest political news is, he concludes.