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Lunar New Year distorts Asian data; More policy easing on hold

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In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore looks into some key macro data for Singapore and China and gives his take on what it says about the economic health of these key economies in the Asian region. As expected the Lunar New Year celebrations have distorted the data somewhat so ascertaining the real state of these economies will have to wait until at least next month.

For Singapore this means further challenges for its economy which is already struggling with a dry up in export markets, says Andrew Robinson. Meanwhile the latest inflation data pointed to some moderation in price pressure but Andrew expects this to be short-lived particularly considering rising energy prices. Against this backdrop it puts the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which reviews its policy again in April, between a rock and a hard place, he says. On the one hand it needs to cut rates to spur growth but on the other it also needs to prevent upward inflationary pressure.

In China the latest HSBC flash PMI, an indicator of China's industrial activity, rose to a four-month-high of 49.7 in February. Export orders however declined to an eight-month low. But the Lunar New Year Celebrations also skewed this data so it won’t be until probably around mid to end March that more accurate assumptions about the economy can be made. Furthermore, despite the weak external outlook, he estimates it’s hardly likely that the People’s Bank of China will start a phase of reserve ratio requirement cuts. The first cut this year was done mainly for technical reasons, he adds.

See more of Andrew's Asian market commentary on TradingFloor.com