In this Asian Focus Video, Yvette Roper of TradingFloor.com interviews Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore about first quarter growth and March industrial production data from Japan. He emphasises the expected positive effects of post earthquake rebuilding on the data and warns that such effects are rapidly fading so the outlook for Japan looks dim. He also gives insight into the state of growth in Singapore and the recent monetary easing in China. Whether the latter or even more reserve requirement ratio cuts can help keep the Asian engine running at moderate speed, let alone power wider reaching growth is unlikely.

Japan’s economy is expected to have grown in the first three months of this year, making it the first increase in two quarters but the upcoming data will hardly represent a turning point for Japan. It might be a good figure for the first quarter but generally things look less bright for the rest of the year, says Andrew. The expected strong rebound is dependent on leftovers from the rebuilding programme after last year’s earthquake. Once the rebuilding is out of the way Japan will be back to relying on exports again, he says. Growth prospects are further compounded by the fact that the yen has strengthened 5 percent since the middle of last month and the external situation is looking "quite dicy" with prognoses for slips in GDP ahead.

The same goes for the industrial production data for March from Japan. Annual growth will be a lot higher but the month on month numbers will be much lower. There’s no doubt that compared to one year ago when the earthquake hit that the March data has to look good but a continued increase is unsustainable, says Andrew. This is partly caused by the Japanese manufacturers’ plans being hindered by power shortages due to the reduction in nuclear power.

The switch to fossil fuel and alternative energy is however more of a concern for the country’s trade balance as Japan is forced to import more oil and coal making a continued trade deficit an ongoing reality, says Andrew. Ever since the earthquake hit Japan it has seen mostly monthly deficits in its trade balance and that’s more of a concern for the economy going forward, he says.

Singapore is expected to post strong first quarter GDP data with performances in the manufacturing and construction sectors standing out. But the outlook for the manufacturing sector in particular, which is very much dependent on the external situation, looks quite bleak, says Andrew.

On China, the affirmation of economic slowing signalled by the reserve requirement ratio cut earlier this week is a positive step, but the cut in itself is hardly enough to change much for China or the Asian economies. It will be quite a struggle for China and the other Asian nations to produce good figures in the coming quarters when the rest of the world is facing a slowdown, he says.

In isolation this cut was a much needed move for China and is not the last. Despite more cuts ahead the expectations for China to power global growth are unrealistic. The Eurozone issues will particularly plague China and the rest of Asia, with these economies being hit at least twice as hard as the US economy.

See more of Andrew's Asian market commentary on TradingFloor.com