Trading Floor
Asian Focus: Australian, Japanese trade data unlikely to impress
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In this Asian Focus video Yvette Roper of TradingFloor.com interviews Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore about GDP and trade data from Australia and Japan. Andrew also gives insight into the countries’ central bank actions. There is still more room for rate cuts in Australia, despite a cut earlier in the week and recent impressive growth and employment reports. For Japan, talk continues about yen intervention though the verbal not physical variety seems the only way for some time yet.
With Japan’s trade numbers seen hovering around zero and or possibly in deficit for May Bank of Japan intervention would be much welcomed by Japan’s exporters. We would have to hear a lot more talk about stimulus measures and the dollar-yen drifting much lower before we actually get some real intervention though, says Andrew, adding that other central banks were not that enthused when the BOJ acted last time and further intervention will be difficult to get through the G7 and G20. Intervention won’t come until the dollar-yen is back down around the 76 level, he says. Trade numbers are out Friday.
On Australia, trade data for April is the focus now with the mining sector’s strength, or lack of, still a determining factor. This report comes on the back of very strong GDP numbers for the first quarter, impressive employment data for May and a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut earlier in the week, all of which Andrew discusses in this video. On GDP such growth levels have not been seen since before the global financial crisis began in 2008. There’s a natural fear though that it was a one-off and that when we get to second quarter data we will see slightly lower numbers due to the global situation and particularly concerns about more economic weakening in Europe and moderation in China. For the trade data though it’s highly unlikely that the number will impress. The trade deficit is seen declining for a fourth straight month.
With Japan’s trade numbers seen hovering around zero and or possibly in deficit for May Bank of Japan intervention would be much welcomed by Japan’s exporters. We would have to hear a lot more talk about stimulus measures and the dollar-yen drifting much lower before we actually get some real intervention though, says Andrew, adding that other central banks were not that enthused when the BOJ acted last time and further intervention will be difficult to get through the G7 and G20. Intervention won’t come until the dollar-yen is back down around the 76 level, he says. Trade numbers are out Friday.
On Australia, trade data for April is the focus now with the mining sector’s strength, or lack of, still a determining factor. This report comes on the back of very strong GDP numbers for the first quarter, impressive employment data for May and a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut earlier in the week, all of which Andrew discusses in this video. On GDP such growth levels have not been seen since before the global financial crisis began in 2008. There’s a natural fear though that it was a one-off and that when we get to second quarter data we will see slightly lower numbers due to the global situation and particularly concerns about more economic weakening in Europe and moderation in China. For the trade data though it’s highly unlikely that the number will impress. The trade deficit is seen declining for a fourth straight month.
See more of Andrew's Asian market commentary on TradingFloor.com