TradingFloor.com Insights

Q2 Insights: USD rally to extend

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The macro environment offers a win-win set-up for the USD from here, says John J. Hardy, Head of FX Strategy, Saxo Bank, in TradingFloor.com's Q2 Insights. In the optimistic scenario, the USD rises because the US recovery continues to take hold in coming months, further encouraging anticipation that the Fed will begin to unwind some of its accommodation as early as later this year, possibly by reducing the rate of its mortgage-backed securities and US treasury buying, established at USD 85 billion per month last December. Fed chief Ben Bernanke himself has spelled out this scenario. Thus, the Fed would be the first super-major central bank to begin to unwind accommodation.  Other supports for the USD on this front are the incredible comeback in energy production, the ongoing reduction of the current account deficit from this and from the reshoring of some production. A potential dark horse support for the USD would be the return of US foreign corporate wealth if the government launches a new Homeland Investment Act profit repatriation scheme.

The more pessimistic scenario for the near term also supports the USD. In this scenario, economic recovery hopes don’t pan out, perhaps due to the accumulative effects of the tax cut expiries and fiscal austerity in the wake of the sequestration process and further budget austerity in the pipeline. So even with no change in Fed policy, this could hit asset markets rather hard, which would tend to support the USD from a safe-haven angle. Alternatively, even if the economy merely stumbles along and slowly improves, if asset markets don’t take a breather, the Fed may feel forced to finally back off some of its open-ended QE programme in recognition that its policy has overheated credit markets and generated dangerous “reach for yield”. Any actual or anticipated real reduction in Fed easing will apply pressure on global risk appetite via the reduction in liquidity.

For more on TradingFloor.com's Insights for the second quarter 2013 see: http://www.tradingfloor.com/blogs/quarterly-outlook