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Weekly Commodity Update: Gold's highs and climates create more grain uncertainty
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o Euro zone debt crisis back in focus. Weaker nations yield spreads above German back above recent highs
GOLD:
o Gold near record highs, longest track of gains for nearly 40 years and heading for its 10th annual increase
o Investors who stayed loyal throughout the recent correction have been rewarded. 9% rally since the July low.
o Investments in ETFs back to record highs with total holdings exceeding 2,000 tons
o Clouded economic outlook, very low interest rate environment and Silver reaching 20 dollar having rallied 13% in just a couple of weeks on the back of robust industrial demand.
o The record high from June at 1265 within reach followed by 1280.
o The trend is pointing higher but expects some profit taking on a break through the highs. Main support below at 1218.
CRUDE:
o Price 9 pct lower over the past month
o Recent positive economic data from US, Germany and China offset by concerns about elevated inventory levels as more VLCC’s brings crude onshore from floating storage.
o North Sea Brent has outperformed Crude by 3.50 past few weeks.
o Range bound for now between 70.35 and 75.60 with near term bias to the downside given the persisting uncertainty.
GRAIN markets:
o Corn main performer this past month +11%, reaching a 23 month high on concerns about the size of the US 2010 crop.
o Weather has been playing up with soggy conditions in some areas combined with hot nights leaving uncertainty about the quality and yield
o September crop report due this Friday
o The Russian export ban until end 2011 is in doubt as Russia’s president indicated the ban could end earlier.
o Russian farmers have begun planting winter wheat gambling on rain to fall soon. The next few weeks very important as lack of rain could put the winter production under considerable risk.