Trading Floor
Video: Weekly Commodity Update: Dollar's drop supports gold, cotton surges
474 views
- Strong global equity rally lifting commodities. Dow on track for the best Sept since 1939
- The US FED prepared to ease further keeping rates at record low levels for longer
- Investors are overlooking all the bad signs in the economy for now.
- In Europe the default risk of weaker nations continues at elevated levels
- CRB flat on the week as energy sector continues to struggle. Cotton jumping 9%
Gold:
- 1.7 % higher over the last week
- Expected QE 2 from FED with rates at record lows lifting gold higher
- Total holdings in ETFs making a new record high above 2,100 tons
- Central banks buying and producer hedge books buybacks
- Technically the uptrend is defined by a 1297 to 1257 range
Crude oil:
- New spot month of November
- Finding support from a weaker dollar post FOMC
- Inventories expected to have fallen last week
- Still stuck mid range unable to gain traction from the stock market rally
- Indicating that fundamentals are currently not strong enough to support a move back above 80
- Near term the dollar probably the main driver.
- Current range defined by 71.65 and 78.80
Cotton:
- Has surged 9% this past week and currently at 33% the strongest performing commodity in 2010
- Price back above 1 dollar per pound only the second time over the last 150 years
- Tight supply due to adverse weather in producing countries.
- Textile mills and speculators have driven prices with a certain amount of fear also being felt.
- Speculative long position in NY risen 10k to 56k over the last two months indicating much involvement from money managers.
- Pakistan (4th) devastating flooding, China (1st) excessive rain,
- Increasing price pressure on clothing manufacturers
- Textile mills could begin to weave more polyester into fabrics to reduce production cost.
Grains:
- Corn continues to outperform wheat trading at post Russia levels to wheat
- La Nina can cause below av rainfall which poses a threat to crops in Argentina and Brazil
- Corn stockpiles will drop to low levels last seen in 2007/08 as livestock farmers switches to corn after lost wheat production.
- Rising ethanol production.