John says: "The market may be over-reacting, in buying AUD, to what was a rather downbeat RBA statement, merely because forward guidance did not point explicitly to a bias for easing further. AUDUSD downside may resume quickly if US data is supportive through the rest of this week."

Management and risk description

There is some further upside potentially locally – possibly toward the important 0.7800 area – but John is looking for a resumption of the sell-off soon. Volatility around, or weak US data through Friday’s employment report. 

Parameters

Entry: 0.7670-0.7720.

Stop: 0.7815 or buy call option for June 12 expiry 25-50 pips above trade entry.

Target: 0.7460 and then 0.7325.

Time horizon: two weeks.